ALDS Game 1 9/30/2011 5:07 pm EST

Line: Yankees -130

Total: 7

The Detroit Tigers travel into New York to face the Yankees in Game 1 of the ALDS today. Both teams are sending out their aces with Detroit going with Justin Verlander and his 24-5 record and 2.40 ERA on the season and a lock for the AL Cy Young Award and probably the AL MVP. Even better, Verlander is 2-0 with a 2.05 ERA in his last 3 starts of the season and is absolutely shutting people down. The Yanks send out CC Sabathia is no slouch with his 19-8 record and 3.00 ERA on the season.

I got to think that Verlander has the pitching edge over Sabathia and the Yankees tonight especially since the Tigers hit better against left handed pitching, like CC. The Tigers average 4.9 runs per game but even more against lefties, they average 5.3 runs per game! If the Yankees want to protect home field advantage and win game 1 today in the Bronx, then CC is going to have to shut down the Tigers lineup that has been hitting lefty pitching well all year and also somehow solve the puzzle that  is Justin Verlander for the first time all year.

If the Tigers want to win this game they are going to have to beat a Yankees team that is 52-29 at home on the season. The Tigers were pretty good on the road with a 46-36 record and they will have to continue that as well as hitting the left handed pitching in CC Sabathia like they did all season long.

The fact that Justin Verlander is plus money tonight in game 1 is really tempting to me but the Yanks are always a good playoff team and especially at home. This game is going to be a very exciting way to open up the 2011 playoffs and I will be watching it and probably make an official play here in the next couple hours.

9/29/2011 8:00pm EST

Line: USF -2.5

Total: 52

The 4-0 South Florida Bulls are traveling to the 2-2 Pittsburgh Panthers tonight in a Big East battle. The Bulls’ most impressive win was opening night in South Bend when they beat Notre Dame 23-20 and turned the Irish over 5 times. Pitt also just played the Irish, last week and they turned ND over 2 times but in a losing effort, 15-12. I know it goes a lot more than that but I think this shows that against a similar opponent that these teams are pretty equal and both defenses should be able to succeed tonight.

USF quarterback, BJ Daniels, is off to a hell of a start for the Bulls with a 4-0 record and averaging close to 300 yards through the air. Just as impressive is the Bulls running game which is averaging almost 200 yards a game. That is all good on paper, but other than Notre Dame, USF hasn’t played competition and against the Irish they only had 126 yards rushing and 128 passing. I compare Pitt’s defense a lot more to ND than any other defense that South Florida has played, so I think you can expect more numbers like that tonight. Some analysts argue that the best part of the USF team is in fact their defense. I think that they will get after Pitt’s QB Sunseri tonight and make Pitt play a 1 dimensional game.

If Pitt can run the football successfully then it might be a long night for the Bulls at Heinz Field. Graham is a very good running back for the Panthers and he already has over 500 yards in just 4 games and if he gets going that will only make it easier for Sunseri to play action and get out of the pocket. Sunseri can make some great plays, especially on the run. However, if USF stops the run and puts him in 2nd and 3rd and longs all night, it will be a very long night in Pitt.

This is going to be a very tough fought defensive battle with good hitting and just great football game tonight in Pitt. I am going to crack a beer right now and get ready for it!

Red Sox @ Orioles

9/27/2011 7:05 pm EST

Line: Red Sox -160

Total 9.5

The very desperate Boston Red Sox come into Baltimore tied up for the AL Wild Card tonight with just 2 games to play on the season. This collapse is because the Sox pitchers can’t get anybody out and the Sox bats cannot seem to get going on a night in and night out basis. Tonight they send out Erik Bedard to face young lefty Zach Britton for the O’s.

If the Sox want to stay tied or even maybe go a game up on the Rays going into the final day Bedard is going to have to get some outs and get them deep into the ballgame. The Sox bullpen is so tired and beat up that they desperately need a starter to go out there and go the distance or at least 7 or 8 for Bard and Papelbon. Unfortunately for Baltimore fans, the O’s can really hit the ball at times but usually struggle against left handed pitching, like Bedard, averaging less than 4 runs per game. Bedard is also pitching pretty well with a 2.84 ERA in his last 3 starts with the Sox. If the O’s want to play spoiler, Britton is going to have to match that effort. Luckly for Britton, the Red Sox don’t hit the ball as well away from Fenway Park and he can have success against a very left heavy lineup in Boston.

Britton has struggled lately with a 5.29 ERA in his last 3 games, however he has been lights out at home with a 6-4 record and 2.71 ERA. I like a pitchers duel here tonight in Baltimore with both teams playing good smart baseball and great defense. I like both starters to go deep into the ball game and my FREE PLAY tonight in on the UNDER of 9.5. This number is way too high for a playoff like game with two strong lefty starters going at it in Baltimore.

9/20/2011 7:10pm EST

Line: Yankees -163

Total: 9

The Tampa Bay Rays are trying to do the unthinkable and finish one of the best comebacks in MLB history and beat out either the Red Sox or Yankees for an AL playoff spot. The Rays are only 2 games behind the Boston Red Sox for the AL Wild Card spot after an awful month of baseball by the Sox and a great month by the Rays, including Tampa taking 3 out of 4 in Boston just last weekend. However, if the Rays want to finish this comeback they are going to have to go into New York and win this series as well which I don’t think will be as easy.

Ivan Nova goes for the Yankees with his very impressive 15-4 record on the season and 7-2 home record. The good news for the Rays is that Nova tends to allow more runs at Yankees Stadium with an ERA of 4.42 at home, compared to his 3.76 ERA on the season. The Rays also score more runs on the road oddly enough, averaging 4.9 runs per game on the road. I like the Rays to get some runs off Nova and the Yankees tonight on the road but if they want to win this game it will have to come down to pitching and defense.

Wade Davis goes for the Rays against a Yankees lineup that averages 5.8 runs per game at home on the year! Davis has been shaky on the road on the season going 5-5 with a 5.40 ERA away from Tampa so far but is pitching much better in his last 3 overall starts with a 2-1 record and 3.68 ERA including a complete game win against the Red Sox, who have a great amount of firepower, just like the Yankees. If the Rays can get to Nova early and let Davis pitch with a lead, this should help but if Davis has to pitch scared or lets up a few early runs, get the bullpen ready early for Tampa.

FREE PLAY: I like the Rays tonight on the road because I feel like destiny is on their side to make a serious playoff push and give Boston and/or New York a run for their money. I like Davis to contain the Yankees lineup and the Rays to get to Nova for a couple and steal the first game here in New York in a huge series.

9/19/2011 8:30pm EST

Line: Giants -7

Total: 44

The banged up 0-1 St. Louis Rams head into the banged up 0-1 New York Giants tonight in the new stadium for Monday Night Football. The major story is that Steven Jackson looks to be out for the Rams tonight which makes the Rams chances a lot harder to win the football game tonight in NY. The good news for the Rams is that Sam Bradford looks to be good to go tonight and the Giants defense let up 258 yards passing last week against Rex Grossman and the Redskins offense. The Rams offense is much better than the Redskins I think and Bradford has a lot more weapons than the Redskins and he is much better personally than Grossman.

The bad news for the Rams has to be their rush defense that allowed 237 yards rushing against the Eagles in week 1! The Giants are going to have to try and do the same out of the gate and if they are successful this is going to be a long night for the Rams defense again. If the Giants can have success running the football then Eli Manning will have an unreal game off the play action and torch the defense even more through the air.

Safe to say that the side is going to come down to which defense can stop the others offense. I think that job is going to be a lot easier for the Giants due to Jackson being out tonight but the way they let the Redskins pass all over them, Jackson being out might actually help them to call more pass plays for Bradford which could lead to more success for the Rams offense against the weak Giants pass defense. I also see the Giants running all over the weak Rams defense which then leads to Eli absolutely picking them apart with the passing game and making it very frusterating.

FREE PLAY: Take the OVER of 44 here tonight in this NFC matchup. I see both defenses struggling to make stops and both offenses having a lot of success both running and passing the football.

9/15/2011 8:00pm EST

Line: LSU -3

Total: 48.5

No rest for the Tigers of LSU after they played Oregon in week 1, they start SEC play on the road against a very tough Mississippi State football team. After that Oregon win, LSU handled Northwestern State at home to get ready for this road test in Mississippi. I think the more impressive win for the Tigers was the Oregon 40-27 win for LSU in week 1 where they rushed for 175 and passed for 89. The reason for the Tigers win is clearly because of turnovers and just unreal defense that they play which will  be an issue for Mississippi State I think. It is really going to be strength against strength because the Mississippi State offense is a really powerful offense with great balance and the ability to score in a hurry, just like Oregon. The rushing attack highlights this offense as they have rushed for over 300 yards in both games including on the road last week in Auburn.

The LSU defense will clearly be the best defense that Mississippi State has faced so far this year as they held the very powerful and successful Oregon offense to just 95 yards rushing on opening night. The real Mississippi State issue is going to be on the defensive side of the ball against LSU. State has given up over 300 yards to Memphis and over 375 yards to Auburn last week and they will not be able to get into a shootout with LSU because it will be a one sided shootout.

If Mississippi State wants a chance to stay in this game it is going to have to be on the defensive side of the football. If they fail to stop LSU like they did against any other team then this is going to be a blowout win for LSU. I do think that State will have some success against the Tigers and will be able to score a couple points, but so was Oregon and LSU had no issues in that game because Oregon couldn’t get a stop. LSU defense will make you make plays and won’t give up the big play which will eventually force their opponents into turnovers and mistakes. If this game goes over the total than LSU is the easy play but if it stays under I think that Mississippi State has a much better and legit chance of winning this thing strait up.

9/14/2011 10:10pm EST

Line: Dodgers -136

Total: 7

What a pitchers duel we have going on tonight in LA as 16-9 Daniel Hudson brings his 3.41 ERA into LA to go toe to toe with 18-5 Clayton Kershaw and his 2.36 ERA. Kershaw is even better at home where he is 10-1 with a 1.80 ERA and even better than all that in his last 3 starts where he is 2-0 with a 1.12 ERA! Hudson isn’t as good on the road where he is just 7-5 with a 3.95 ERA but he is even better than Kershaw in his last 3 starts with a 3-0 record and 0.78 ERA!

The key here is going to be what offense can get to the opposing pitchers because both of these offenses are very capable of being shut down, especially the Dodgers at home where they average just 3.4 runs per game The Diamondbacks average just 4.2 runs per game on the road and against left handed pitching but they also get shut down quite often against good pitchers and I think that is what they got tonight in Kershaw.

I don’t see either offense having much success at all tonight in LA. If you look on paper this looks like a 1-0 or 2-1 win for one team with these two studs pitching against each other and the way Kershaw pitches at home, don’t be surprised if he goes the distance and doesn’t even let up a run! As for the Dodgers offense, they are not very good right now and unless Hudson finds himself with control problems tonight he should not let Matt Kemp beat him and he will shut down the rest of the Dodgers lineup.

Free play is on the UNDER 7 here tonight in LA as like I said these two studs will put on a show and both will go deep into the game and keep this total way under.

9/13/2011 8:10pm EST

Line: Tigers -170

Total: 7

Justin Verlander takes the hill for the Tigers tonight in Chicago and even though he isn’t pitching nearly as well as he usually does he is still 3-0 in his last 3 starts. Gavin Floyd is his counterpart and he is also struggling only his issues are coming at home where he has a 5.97 ERA! The Tigers are the hottest team in baseball right now and are absolutely killing the baseball so Floyd better figure something out or this could get ugly, early. The Tigers are winners of 10 in a row and in those 10 games, they have scored 8 or more in 7 out of those 10 games!

Like I said, Verlander is showing a little bit of fatigue I think with his 4.19 ERA in his last 3 starts and I think that the Sox will get a couple off him tonight at home, it is going to be up to the Tigers offense to get a couple more if they want to win this game and keep the winning streak going.

I see the Tigers knocking Floyd out before the 6th inning and the Tigers maybe even getting over the total of 7 by themselves tonight in Chicago. They are just seeing the baseball so well and scoring runs in bunches now that they are all healthy. With the Sox getting a few of their own off Verlander tonight I see this total easily going over the low number.

FREE PLAY: Tigers/White Sox OVER 7

9/11/2011 4:15pm EST

Line: Chargers -9

Total: 42.5

The Minnesota Vikings have just made Adrian Peterson the highest paid RB in the history of the NFL but will he come out today and prove everyone that he is worth that money? The Chargers defense is just mediocre against the run as they allowed 119 yards per game last year against the run and the Vikings obviously have a pretty good running game with AP and average 121 yards per game. The Vikings also made a very nice move in my opinion on getting QB Donovan McNabb to manage the game and not make mistakes. Brett Farve made too many mistakes for the Vikings to be able to get over the hump and I think McNabb will control the game much better and understand that AP is the horse and he will just have to make some play action passes and keep the defense honest. The Vikings lost stud wideout Sidney Rice to free agency but still have enough around McNabb to keep defenses honest. Wideout Percy Harvin will be a big play maker for the Vikings and if they can get him in open field or quick hits then that will open up the run for AP.

The Chargers are bringing back the same core that they have for multiple years with Rivers, Gates, Jackson and Co. They are losing the big play maker Darren Sproles but they are sold on RB Ryan Matthews to carry the load and be able to make the plays for them in the running game. The obvious strength of the Chargers is going to be the passing game with Rivers, Gates, Jackson and Floyd. It will be a real test for the Vikings secondary and if they can stop this passing attack of the Chargers.

If the Chargers want a chance to win this football game this year they will have to come out with something to slow down Peterson. AP went for a record 296 yards in the last matchup against the Chargers in a Vikings win and I will be holding my breath to see if he can do it again. I think this game will come down the what defense can get a stop. AP is going to get his carries and if the Chargers can’t stop him then who knows today and the pass rush for the Vikings is going to be key to pressure Rivers and take some pressure off the secondary. Going to be a much better game than Vegas thinks I think this afternoon in San Diego and watch out for AP tearing it up!